# Russian roulette

You have 2 options:

1. Fixed 12000 euro/year salary.
2. Play russian roulette ($p = 0.1$) at the end of the year. If you survive, you get 1.2m euros.

Because $p = 0.1$ is a high chance of losing your life, most people would choose option 1.

However, if your employer gave you the following options:

1. Fixed 12000 euro/year salary.
2. Get 1.2m with $p = 0.1$ at the end of the year.

I bet many people would choose option 1.

Let's run a simulation over 100 years.

javascriptconst simulation = (bounty_1, bounty_2) => {

let option_1 = 0
let option_2 = 0

for(let i = 0; i < 100; i ++){
option_1 += bounty_1

if(Math.random() < 0.1)
option_2 += bounty_2

}

return option_1 === option_2 ? 'Draw' : option_1 > option_2 ? 'Option 1' : 'Option 2'
}


If you repeat the simulation 10000 times:

javascriptlet winner = {
'Option 1': 0,
'Option 2': 0,
'Draw': 0
}

for(let i = 0; i < 10000; i ++){

winner[simulation(12000, 12000000)]++

}

console.log(winner)// {Option 1: 0, Option 2: 10000, Draw: 0}


Option 2 is better over the long run. Bear in mind though, that you would get paid once every 10 years on average. It's a large timespan window. That's why many people would go for the first option.

Hi, I'm Erik, an engineer from Barcelona. If you like the post or have any comments, say hi.